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David E. Laidler, Department of Economics. However, this infrastructure must be affordable, resilient and reliable, and complemented by efficient services. Efficient transportation, financial, information, computer and telecommunication services are also critical for firms to compete in the global market.
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Hence, services trade policy must balance efficiency and job creation. Development strategies can be an essential tool in the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address other environmental challenges. Responding to climate change requires immediate action on both mitigation and adaptation.
Planning decisions taken now can either open up pathways to low-carbon, resilient futures or lock countries into high-emissions trajectories. Development strategies based on copying old ways of modernising economies through carbon-intensive energy systems and industrial processes will guarantee that the goals of the Paris Agreement will not be met. Transitioning to a low-carbon economy will require new infrastructure to support decarbonised electricity systems, energy efficient processes and low-emission and clean transport systems OECD, UN and World Bank, .
This in turn will require a supportive policy environment that creates the right incentives. Putting a price on carbon and reforming fossil fuel subsidies, for example, can help change behaviour and reorient investment decisions. Notably, the cost of renewable energy is declining, and an increasing number of countries are integrating renewable energy sources into their energy mix IEA, . In addition to the positive environmental impacts, the greening of the economy in itself can be an effective strategy for economic growth and job creation OECD, .
China, for example, has recognised the enormous potential of the renewable energy market and aims to be a leader in the field. There is large room for growth in renewable energy in the heat and transport sectors IEA, . Development strategies also need to include measures to prepare countries for the effects of a changing climate.
The effects will be wide-ranging, touching on water security and water hazards e. Given the inherent uncertainty around climate impacts, adaptation planning needs to be flexible and follow an iterative risk management approach OECD, . Development strategies need to plan for a range of possible outcomes rather than one most likely projection. They also need to draw on knowledge about the risks from climate change based on national assessments. Conversely, most countries in Africa, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, will face rapid population increases.
Population growth and decline both bring challenges. Countries with shrinking populations will face fiscal pressures from an increasing old age dependency burden, healthcare costs and slowing growth. Increased labour force participation of women, higher retirement ages and greater use of automation may ease them. Those with growing populations could receive a dividend of lower dependency burdens and higher growth.
Countries with a growing population will face special challenges, including how to leverage the demographic potential, and deal with rapid urbanisation and migration. Countries will not benefit from the demographic dividend unless they can provide education and productive employment for growing labour forces. Some countries with rapidly growing populations may reduce population growth significantly. They may even achieve a demographic transition, with growth falling to less than the replacement rate by However, the number of persons already born will still swell labour force growth. This would put strong pressure on the labour market and social stability.
However, the projected rate of increase will be lower for North America, Oceania and Europe, which have been mostly urban since The population growth challenge is most acute in Africa. Like some Asian and Latin American countries, Africa could tap into its demographic dividend to support and accelerate economic growth and development. The population in Africa is expected to more than double between and Creating enough productive employment for new entrants to the labour market is one of the biggest challenges for the continent.
While many countries and regions have experienced rapid population growth as they pass through the demographic transition, the scale of population increase in absolute numbers in Africa is unprecedented.
Since the end of the Second World War, a global architecture has been set up to govern relationships amongst countries. This has included the UN system and its specialised agencies to deal with security and many global issues. The International Monetary Fund was created to address the balance of payments crisis. The WTO was formed to deal with trade issues. And the World Bank and various regional development banks were established to provide development finance and advice.
Despite the Cold War that lasted until the fragmentation of the Soviet Union in and various wars involving specific countries, a major global war has not occurred since In addition, the global architecture for trade and investment has been generally open. It has supported the rapid growth of trade that benefited the world economy and helped many developing countries reduce their poverty. More recently there have been signs of growing dissatisfaction with multilateralism OECD, .
Whither Labor-Intensive Industrialization?
Complaints have included the slow pace of response to emerging issues e. In parallel, China and other large emerging economies have created multilateral institutions that supplement existing global governance arrangements. These dynamics pose challenges and opportunities for countries when designing development strategies. On the one hand, strategies must astutely position countries in an increasingly complex and fragmented global governance architecture.
On the other hand, the greater diversity of development finance institutions, for example, increases access countries have to international finance and options for development co-operation. Strategies must be crafted to the specifics of country characteristics, institutions and capabilities. Build capacity to respond more quickly.
This implies need for greater capability in government and business, which includes more education and training, and institutions supporting flexibility. Build more flexibility into strategies, which implies more global scanning, monitoring, assessment and adjustment. Find new growth strategies, taking advantage of new technologies:.
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Rapid development and dissemination of new disruptive technologies. Pay more attention to technology and develop greater capacity to take advantage of existing and new technologies. This requires more investment in technical skills through both formal education and lifelong learning. It also requires a more effective national innovation systems, as well as greater support for entrepreneurship and for the start-up of new technology-based companies.
Invest more in digital infrastructure, skills and digital capabilities in government and business. Incorporate explicit focus on increasing cohesion, reducing inequality and increasing social protection. More pronounced population asymmetries, declining vs. Declining: increase labour force participation, especially women; increase retirement age, increase immigration and automation.
Growing: provide health, education and skills; provide productive jobs to youth bulge. Improve urban planning to make it more energy efficient, develop intermediary cities, provide more productive jobs; improve the efficient delivery of services such as water, sanitation, sewage, etc. Risk of significant negative effect of climate change if more is not done globally to reduce greenhouse gases. Include explicit environmental goals into strategy in terms of environmental conservation and green growth.
In addition, given insufficient mitigation of climate change, developing countries need to adapt more and take defensive action. This could include moving populations away from low-lying areas near the sea or prone to flooding or droughts; or developing more weather- resistant agriculture, infrastructure, etc.
Edited by Célestin Monga and Justin Yifu Lin
Pay attention to changing geopolitics and think how to position country for changing global alliances and implications for trade strategies, energy, commodity prices, international finance, etc. While the sample is not exhaustive, it includes countries from across the developing world that show interesting regional differences. Encouragingly, most plans focus on inclusiveness and environmental sustainability in addition to economic growth, although few develop how they will achieve these specific goals.
Social and environmental issues rank high in roughly three-quarters of development plans. Social issues targeted fostering inclusive growth and reducing inequality, with less emphasis on strengthening social protection. The focus on the environment is mostly on environmental protection, disaster management and the energy transition. Less than half of plans have explicit objectives for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
A major exception is China, which does focus on green growth and has detailed plans for reducing CO 2 and developing non-carbon energy resources. The historical analysis in Chapter 3 shows that inclusiveness and environmental sustainability are important elements for development strategies. It argues that economic growth alone does not necessarily lead to good performance on key dimensions of well-being. Scope exists for policy to improve performance on social and environmental outcomes, even delinked from economic growth.
Few plans seem aware of mega trends and the associated challenges and opportunities for development, or consider the uncertainty of how these trends may evolve. Yet, countries should take this uncertainty into account in developing their plans. Their economies need greater flexibility and resilience to adjust to rapidly changing conditions.
On average, plans are expected to be implemented within seven years.
Knick Harley | IDEAS/RePEc
In addition to a short timeframe, the plans tend to lack contingencies for significant changes. These changes could range from global economic conditions such as a financial crisis , changing geopolitical conditions such as trade wars or disruptive technology. The major exception is China.
Related Labour-Intensive Industrialization in Global History (Routledge Explorations in Economic History)
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